Most Phuket outlook pieces are written to reassure. This one is written to be checkable, so every figure below carries the period it covers and the party that produced it, and where a number is old we say so.
The short version, before the detail. Arrivals are down slightly and spending is holding up better than arrivals. Hotel rates are being defended at the cost of occupancy. Supply, both hotel and residential, is still arriving. None of that makes this a bad market. It makes it a market where the difference between a well run asset and a poorly run one is about to become very visible.
How to read any Phuket market claim
Read the date before the headline
Four questions that dispose of most of what is published about this market, including, on occasion, this page.
01
What period does the number cover?
A figure from 2019, from the recovery years or from the first half of this year describe three different markets. Most bullish Phuket claims are quietly using 2022 or 2023 as the base, when anything compared against the closed years looks like growth.
02
Who produced it, and what do they sell?
A hotel research firm, a national tourism authority and a developer’s sales brochure have different incentives. The figure can be accurate in all three cases and still be selected.
03
Is it a stock or a flow?
Total units in the market, units launched this year and units actually sold are three separate numbers that get used interchangeably. So do arrivals, room nights and revenue.
04
Does it separate price from yield?
A rising price per square metre and a rising rental yield are not the same claim, and in a market adding supply they frequently move in opposite directions.
Our own framework. Applied to this page: the hotel figures cover the first half of 2026, the arrivals figures cover January to July 2026, and the property figures are from April 2025 and are therefore the oldest numbers here. Each is attributed and dated below.
Arrivals: down slightly, and reshaped completely
Phuket took roughly eight million visitors in the first seven months of 2026, down 1.53 percent on the same period of 2025. Nationally the picture is similar in direction: Thailand recorded 32.9 million international arrivals in 2025, down 7.23 percent from 35.55 million in 2024, and the first months of 2026 continued to run slightly behind.
The headline decline is not the interesting part. The composition is.
Phuket arrivals, January to July 2026
Who is actually coming
Visitors by source market over the first seven months of the year.
Approximately 8 million visitors in total over the seven months, down 1.53% on the same period of 2025, with tourism revenue of about ฿310.96 billion, down only 0.72%. Reported September 2026. Israel was the fastest growing market, with July arrivals up 52.43% year on year and more than twelve times the 2019 level.
Russia is now Phuket’s largest market. China is not.
That single line is the most important structural fact about this island in 2026. Russia delivered 619,130 visitors to Phuket in the first seven months, comfortably ahead of China on 383,918 and India on 354,066. For anyone whose mental model of Phuket still has Chinese group tourism at the top of the list, that model is several years out of date.
It matters operationally, not just statistically. Russian and Indian guests book differently, stay for different lengths of time, travel at different points in the calendar and want different things from a villa than the market that used to dominate. A property positioned for the guest of 2018 is mispositioned for the guest of 2026.
Russia sent Phuket sixty percent more visitors than China did. Anyone still positioning this island for Chinese group tourism is running a 2018 strategy.
Spending held up better than arrivals
Phuket tourism revenue over those seven months came to about ฿310.96 billion, down only 0.72 percent, against an arrivals decline of 1.53 percent. Fewer visitors, each spending slightly more. That is the single most encouraging number in this article and it deserves to be read carefully rather than celebrated.
Rising spend per visitor in a market with falling volume usually means the composition is shifting upward, which favours private villas over volume accommodation. It can also mean currency effects, or a temporary mix change, which is why we would want two more quarters before treating it as a trend.
Hotels are defending rate and paying for it in occupancy
Upscale and luxury hotels on the island recorded revenue per available room of ฿5,456 in the first half of 2026, down 8.7 percent from ฿5,975. Occupancy fell from 84.1 percent to 80.0 percent, average daily rate came down 4 percent to ฿6,820, and guest numbers came down 2.72 percent to 6.04 million.
Combined inventory reached 49,380 rooms, with roughly 3,440 more under construction for delivery between 2026 and 2028. That is close to a seven percent supply increase arriving into a market where demand is flat at best.
The cranes on the bypass are building rooms for guests who are already asleep somewhere else.
For a villa owner this is the relevant benchmark even though it describes hotels. Guests price a villa against the alternative, and the alternative is discounting availability while holding its headline rate.
The residential market is overwhelmingly condominiums
Phuket residential supply, April 2025
What is already built, and what it costs
The most recent full supply picture for the island’s residential market.
33,704
83% of the market
Condominium units, across 124 projects
6,896
17% of the market
Villa and landed units, across 219 projects
฿144,000
per square metre
Median condominium price. Villas median ฿70,000 per sq m
+28%
branded premium
Branded condominiums at ฿181,000 per sq m against non branded
40,600 units across 343 active developments in total, with Russians, Europeans and Bangkok buyers named as the three largest buyer groups. Figures current as at 30 April 2025 and published May 2025, which makes them the oldest data on this page. Treat the price levels as a baseline rather than as today’s market.
Two things in that panel are worth an owner’s attention. The first is proportion: 83 percent of Phuket’s residential supply is condominiums and only 17 percent is villas and landed property. Villas are the scarce side of this market, and scarcity is the only durable defence against a supply cycle.
The second is the branded premium. Branded condominiums were achieving ฿181,000 per square metre against a market median of ฿144,000, a premium of 28 percent. That premium is the entire reason almost every new project on this island now arrives with a hotel name attached to it, and it is worth understanding what an owner is actually buying when they pay it.
Seventeen percent of Phuket’s homes are villas. In a year when the island is building hotel rooms, being one of the seventeen is the feature.
What this actually means for an owner
- Do not plan the next three years on the last three. The recovery years flattered everybody. The figures above are the normalised market and they are the ones to budget against.
- Length of stay matters more than rate. In a market where rate is under pressure and supply is rising, the defensible position is fewer, longer bookings rather than a higher nightly number.
- Position for the guest who is actually arriving. Russia, India and a fast growing Israeli market, not the composition of 2018.
- Condition is now a pricing lever. When occupancy is the thing being competed for, the house that has been maintained on a schedule holds its rate and the one maintained on complaint discounts first.
- Treat the shoulder months as the whole game. High season fills itself even in a soft year. April, May, October and November are where a soft year becomes a bad one.
What we are watching for the rest of the year
Whether spend per visitor holds, because that is the difference between a market trading down and a market trading up with fewer people. Whether the 3,440 rooms under construction arrive on schedule or slip, because arriving on schedule into flat demand would be the single biggest pressure on rate. And whether the shift toward Russian, Indian and Middle Eastern source markets continues, because it changes what a well positioned villa looks like.
We will revisit these figures when the full year numbers are published rather than when they suit us.
Sources. Phuket arrivals of approximately 8 million for January to July 2026, down 1.53%, tourism revenue of about ฿310.96 billion, down 0.72%, the source market figures of Russia 619,130, China 383,918, India 354,066, Australia 149,542, United Kingdom 131,344, Germany 106,902 and France 103,752, and Israeli July arrivals up 52.43% year on year: Travel And Tour World, September 2026, read 24 September 2026. Thailand’s 32.9 million international arrivals in 2025, down 7.23% from 35.55 million in 2024, and 10.83 million arrivals to 19 April 2026, down 3.34%: Tourism Authority of Thailand figures as compiled and published 27 April 2026, read 24 September 2026. Phuket upscale and luxury hotel revenue per available room of ฿5,456 against ฿5,975, occupancy of 80.0% against 84.1%, average daily rate of ฿6,820 down 4%, 6.04 million guests down 2.72%, inventory of 49,380 rooms and approximately 3,440 rooms under construction for 2026 to 2028: research and advisory division of Cushman & Wakefield Thailand for the first half of 2026, reported by Nation Thailand, read 24 September 2026. Phuket residential supply of 33,704 condominium units across 124 projects and 6,896 villa and landed units across 219 projects, 40,600 units across 343 developments in total, median condominium price of ฿144,000 per square metre, median villa price of ฿70,000 per square metre, branded condominiums at ฿181,000 per square metre, and Russians, Europeans and Bangkok buyers as the three largest buyer groups: C9 Hotelworks Phuket Property Market Update, May 2025, data current as at 30 April 2025, read 24 September 2026. Interpretation, the reading framework and the operating conclusions are ours.
